I attended an advisor meeting recently, and many of my colleagues were asking the speaker about what fixed income recommendations he had for the current environment. The speaker wisely demurred; but it pointed out the difficulty investors (and even advisors), have with avoiding the fortune telling trap. It is sometimes easier to give people a quick answer than it is to dive deeper into how unreliable the premise of predicting the future might be.
I have ceased to be shocked (but I once was), at how well intentioned investors can be swept along in the word fog of the day and make statements of “fact” that make huge leaps of logic from the current reality. As the saying goes, “It’s never different this time”.
If you believe as we do that active management is a zero sum game before costs, trying to chase funds or managers (or time the market), makes little sense. Sometimes the path ahead is a little clearer than at other times. Without grounding, a philosophy, it is easy to be blown around like a small sailboat in high seas.